Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
